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TOPIC: Coronavirus

Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 20:19 #361

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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 20:29 #362

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I wonder if its even real sometimes... so much predictive programming out there.

And the Chinese had been protesting against authorities... same goes for Hong Kong. Theyve nipped that in the bud.

Lots of problem>reaction> solution benefits here... but yea it could still be real, i dont fucking know.

Hopefully the complex organism that is us humans can fight it off if indeed it is a legitimate threat.

Northern Italy... an economic powerhouse... now in trouble... Chinas economy obviously affected.

Could even be a case of... we're due for another market crash... when you can create the economic future, theres trillions to be made. But they never let a good crisis go to waste so there could be any number of benefits had from this by the few.
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 21:10 #363

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Flare wrote:



2020-02-23

The situation in #WuHan City at night. The lockdown time has reached the limit of human tolerance

Hello Flare,

all the voices sound very horrible and scary at first glance, but if one closes its eyes and listens again, then it sounds much more like an indoor adventure park, probably with waterslides. :think:
Last Edit: 23 Feb 2020 21:11 by Steven.
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 21:19 #364

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novum wrote:
I wonder if its even real sometimes... so much predictive programming out there.

And the Chinese had been protesting against authorities... same goes for Hong Kong. Theyve nipped that in the bud.

Lots of problem>reaction> solution benefits here... but yea it could still be real, i dont fucking know.

Hopefully the complex organism that is us humans can fight it off if indeed it is a legitimate threat.

Northern Italy... an economic powerhouse... now in trouble... Chinas economy obviously affected.

Could even be a case of... we're due for another market crash... when you can create the economic future, theres trillions to be made. But they never let a good crisis go to waste so there could be any number of benefits had from this by the few.

^ Yea, same thoughts here regarding the virus maybe real or fake...

However, I'm not going to sit and wait for it confirmed to be real by a panic... thus today we bought quite a bit of long shelf life foods and I bought some stuff from a prep shop.

Better be safe than sorry.

And if this thing blows over and nothing significant happened... well, then we'll just be eating all that food we bought I guess. ;)
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 21:48 #365

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Steven wrote:
Hello Flare,

all the voices sound very horrible and scary at first glance, but if one closes its eyes and listens again, then it sounds much more like an indoor adventure park, probably with waterslides. :think:

Nice catch... and yes we must remember that youtube is monetized so there is incentive for people to be sensationalist in order to get views and try get viral... so theres all of that to consider.
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 21:48 #366

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Steven wrote:
Flare wrote:



2020-02-23

The situation in #WuHan City at night. The lockdown time has reached the limit of human tolerance

Hello Flare,

all the voices sound very horrible and scary at first glance, but if one closes its eyes and listens again, then it sounds much more like an indoor adventure park, probably with waterslides. :think:

Could be.

Yet, in Italy they have locked down several cities and towns as well today.

I'm not going to sit and wait for panic to hit before I stock up a bit of food and items, because the supermarkets will already be empty by then.

This thing could just as easily blow over as we have been 'duped' by this kind of BS before... but then again, people at the bottom of a 1000 year silent volcano also tend to suffer a bit of normalcy bias before the lava flows through their village.
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 21:52 #367

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And if the virus won't catch us... well, I don't know what this will be doing to the global economy, but I think China is being hit very hard at the moment and they basically produce all goods of the world atm... economic consequences could be severe if this keeps going.
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Coronavirus 23 Feb 2020 22:34 #368

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Theres Australia fucked then, it relies heavily on China.

Not that it hasnt been sliding into economic fuckedness for the past 4-5 years.. it has... a Chinese downturn will spank it harder though... which is probably whats wanted... leech wealth away from the middle class and those who have generational wealth... mostly via property prices falling... it evens the playing field vs incoming 3rd worlders... which is very desirable to the architects.

Buy/hedge some USD is my guess... or silver. I think they had to go a bit MAGA too the past few years to stave off civil unrest in the USA... Trumpism buys em more time to change the demographics and strip more weapons away... the US has gotten stronger economically, and there are everyday folk benefiting from the stock market surge via their retirement funds and other investments.
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Last Edit: 23 Feb 2020 22:36 by novum.
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Coronavirus 24 Feb 2020 11:48 #369

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liberabo te ab inferno

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Nothing stirs, only the intense humming of evil remains.
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 00:37 #370

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Flare wrote:
And if the virus won't catch us... well, I don't know what this will be doing to the global economy, but I think China is being hit very hard at the moment and they basically produce all goods of the world atm... economic consequences could be severe if this keeps going.

...aaand predictably, the markets have taken a dump. US markets down, the rest will follow.

Meanwhile...the solution to the problem is being shipped...


Moderna ships first batch of coronavirus vaccine for human trials

Feb. 24, 2020 6:19 PM ET|About: Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) +15.1% after-hours on news it shipped the first batch of its mRNA-1273 vaccine against the novel coronavirus to U.S. government researchers to be used in a planned phase 1 study in the U.S.

Moderna says it sent vaccine vials from its Norwood, Mass., manufacturing plant to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md.

The turnaround time in producing the first batch - co-designed with NIAID, after learning the genetic sequence for the new virus in January - was just 42 days.

If a trial starts as planned in April, only about three months would have passed from vaccine design to human testing; after a 2002 outbreak in China of an older coronavirus - severe acute respiratory syndrome - it took 20 months for NIAID to get a vaccine into the first stage of human testing.

finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-ships-mrna-vaccine-against-230400411.html
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 00:40 #371

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Flare wrote:
I think it predicts a vaccination coming out of the USA also, I read it somewhere but cant remember where now... and look at what I just posted. :hahano:
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 02:52 #372

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quote:

China has exclusive manufacturing agreements for drugs for anesthesia, cancer and HIV/AIDS, along with other medicines that "we use every day, not only in hospitals but in our own medicine chests," Gibson says, adding that China is now the world's only source of antibiotics, including the main ingredient in vancomycin, a treatment of last resort that is used by patients who are suffering from infections that are resistant to other treatment.

"It's a huge dramatic shift and nobody knows about it," Gibson says. "And they're just ramping up. It's all part of a plan that China laid out in its 2025 initiative to become the pharmacy to the world."

www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2018-05-08/trumps-quest-for-lower-drug-prices-may-provoke-china-trade-war-experts-warn

China is the main source for antibiotics and many other prescribed and over the counter drugs. What kind of effect will that have? last I heard there were 150 million Chinese in some kind of lock down.

Vehicle plants are being shut down, the Hyundai headquarters in South Korea has shut down for lack of parts from China, it also affects General Motors, Renault, KIA, Nissan etc.. A lot of vehicle parts come from China.

South Korea is being hit hard by the Coronavirus.

So much of what is available to buy these days is 'made in China' or has parts made in China.

I wonder though if the Chinese will end up reversing quarantines and force millions of people back to work in close quarters, despite the health risks.
Last Edit: 25 Feb 2020 02:53 by annabelle.
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 02:56 #373

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annabelle wrote:
So much of what is available to buy these days is 'made in China' or has parts made in China.

Yes, and whether this thing is for real or not, the impact is sure starting to look real. And anything that spooks China's economy will flow onto everywhere else.
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 09:24 #374

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Will this impact on the availability of chicken chow mein?
8 people dead in Iran so far, another 12 fucking million completely not dead.
Boo hoo, run and hide you scaredy cats.

Project Fear is up and running.
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 13:46 #375

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novum wrote:
I wonder if its even real sometimes... so much predictive programming out there.

And the Chinese had been protesting against authorities... same goes for Hong Kong. Theyve nipped that in the bud.

Lots of problem>reaction> solution benefits here... but yea it could still be real, i dont fucking know.

Hopefully the complex organism that is us humans can fight it off if indeed it is a legitimate threat.

Northern Italy... an economic powerhouse... now in trouble... Chinas economy obviously affected.

Could even be a case of... we're due for another market crash... when you can create the economic future, theres trillions to be made. But they never let a good crisis go to waste so there could be any number of benefits had from this by the few.

Speaking of economic crashes. Read a very interesting article on zerohegde that addressed this very question. It might be a long post but def worth reading

Will give a small summary for those who don't want to read the whole thing:

- 85% of all small businesses will run out of money within 3 months

- There were rumors that this thing will blow over somewhere in mid to end march. But that kind of rhetoric is changing quickly

-The heart of the Chinese economy is these small businesses. 85% of these companies is responsible for 80% of the employment( that is over a billion people). Most of these businesses will run out of money very soon. The majority of them can only survive for 3 months tops

- If they go bankrupt the market will be flooded with trillions of dollars worth of bad loans

- Employers have tried to give their ppl generous bonuses to come back to work. Only 20% took advantage of that offer

- If the CCP waits for the epidemic to be over they will be bankrupt. But if they choose to restart the economy they riks making things much worse
Btw on the 24th they send many Chinese back to work in a hail mary attempt to save their economy. Wishing somehow, against all odds, that , things will turn out alright

- The CCP cant print extra money and hand it over to the ppl as it will cause inflation. But on the other hand tax cuts wont do any good if the majority of your population is out of job

- Banks worldwide will be in deep trouble if China go's bankrupt

- China has only one month to come up with a miracle solution



We could be moving to stage 5 sooner then we think
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 13:55 #376

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Forgot the add the article itself :P

"It Will Be Really, Really Bad": China Faces Financial Armageddon With 85% Of Businesses Set To Run Out Of Cash In 3 Months

For the past two weeks, even as the market took delight in China's doctored and fabricated numbers showing the coronavirus spread was "slowing", we warned again and again that not only was this not the case (which recent data out of South Korea, Japan and now Italy has confirmed), but that for all its assertions to the contrary, China's workers simply refused to go back to work (even with FoxConn offering its workers extra bonuses just to return to the factory) and as a result the domestic economy had ground to a halt as we described in:

China Has Ground To A Halt: "On The Ground" Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
Terrifying Charts Show China's Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

Unfortunately, it's not getting any better as the latest high frequency updates out of China demonstrate:


Also unfortunately, it is getting worse, because as we explained several weeks ago, China is now fighting against time to reboot its economy, and the longer the paralysis continues, the more dire the outcome for both China's banks and local companies. And since it is no longer just "scaremongering" by "conspiracy blogs", but rather conventional wisdom that China may implode, here is a summary of how the narrative that "it will all be over by mid-March" is dramatically changing.

Let's start with Chinese businesses: while China's giant state-owned SOEs will likely have enough of a liquidity lifeblood to last them for 2-3 quarters, it is the country's small businesses that are facing a head on collision with an iceberg, because according to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses - which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone within a month.

Should this happen, not only will China's economy collapse, but China's $40 trillion financial system will disintegrate, as it is suddenly flooded with trillions in bad loans.

Take the case of Danny Lau who last week reopened his aluminum facade panel factory in China's southern city of Dongguan after an extended Lunar New Year break. To his shock, less than a third of its roughly 200 migrant workers showed up.

"They couldn't make their way back," the Hong Kong businessman said. Most of his workers hail from central-western China, including 11 from Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 2,000 people. Many said they had been banned from leaving their villages as authorities race to contain the epidemic.

Lau's business had already been hurt by the 25% tariff on aluminum products the U.S. imposed in its tit-for-tat trade war with China. Now he worries the production constraints will give American customers another reason to cancel orders and switch to Southeast Asian suppliers. The virus is making a bad situation "worse," he said.

Lau is not alone: this same double blow is hitting small and midsize enterprises across China, prompting a growing chorus of calls for the government to step in and offer lifelines. The stakes could not be higher: These smaller employers account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers, according to the latest official statistics. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue. In short: they are the beating heart of China's economy.

Companies like Lau's that have resumed some production are the lucky ones. Many factories and other businesses remain completely stalled due to the virus. Many owners have no other choice but pray that things return to normal before they careen off a financial cliff.

And here is the stark reality of China's T-minus 3 months countdown: 85% of 1,506 SMEs surveyed in early February said they expect to run out of cash within three months, according to a report by Tsinghua University and Peking University. And forget about profits for the foreseeable future: one-third of the respondents said the outbreak is likely to cut into their full-year revenue by more than 50%, according to the Nikkei.

"Most SMEs in China rely on operating revenue and they have fewer sources for funding" than large companies and state-owned enterprises, said Zhu Wuxiang, a professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management and a lead author of the report.

The problem with sequential supply chains is that these also apply to the transfer of liquidity: employers need to pay landlords, workers, suppliers and creditors - regardless of whether they can regain full production capacity anytime soon. Any abrupt and lasting delays will wreak havoc on China's economic ecosystem.

"The longer the epidemic lasts, the larger the cash gap drain will be," Zhu said, adding that companies affected by the trade war face a greater danger of bankruptcy because many are already heavily indebted. "Self-rescue will not be enough. The government will need to lend help."

So where are we nearly two months after the epidemic started? Wwll, as of last Monday, only about 25% of people had returned to work in China's tier-one cities, according to an estimate by Japanese brokerage Nomura, based on data from China's Baidu. By the same time last year, 93% were back on the job.

And making matters worse, as we first noted several weeks ago, local governments around the country face a daunting question of whether to focus on staving off the virus or encourage factory reopenings, as the following tweet perfectly captures.

As long as the national logistics network "is still in shambles," Nomura's chief China economist, Lu Ting said, there might be little to gain from rushing restarts, whereas "the cost of a rebound in infections might be quite high." He expects economic activity to pick up again in a couple of months, although the longer Beijing fails to confidently put an end to the pandemic, the longer it will take for activity to return to normal. Meanwhile the 3 month countdown clock is ticking...

Don't tell that to Zhou Dewen, the chairman of the Small and Medium Business Development Association in the city of Wenzhou, who knows this and agrees that this crisis is worse than SARS. Far, far worse. In fact, he said, it is "the most severe" of any crisis in the 40 years since China embarked on major economic reforms. He sees not a double but a "triple whammy," factoring in the economic slowdown the country was experiencing even before the trade conflict and the virus.

Wenzhou, on the coast of Zhejiang Province, was the first city outside Hubei put into full lockdown in an attempt to stop the pathogen. As of last week, Zhou said, only factories that produce medical supplies had been allowed to resume work.

"What entrepreneurs need is confidence," Zhou said. "But first they need to survive." He is hoping the government will offer fiscal support and tax breaks to buy more time for small businesses. Some local governments have already responded to such pleas by waiving electric bills and delaying taxes, social security payments and loans. But for some businesses, such relief measures are little consolation.

Worse, last Sunday the communist party's mouthpiece, the Global Times, suggested that instead of waiting for fiscal bailouts, Beijing will have no choice but to cut spending and unleash austerity, a move that would have catastrophic consequences for China. But even if Beijing does ease fiscally, it is unclear just what it can do short of printing money and handing it out to everyone. "A tax reduction doesn't help if you don't even have income," said Zhu, who must somehow scrape together around 700,000 yuan ($100,000) for rent and the salaries of about 40 employees.

Zhu reckons her company will lose about 3 million yuan in profit over the two months. Besides the postponements, couples that were looking at wedding options before the outbreak have put their planning on hold. There is little room, it seems, to think about love in the time of the coronavirus.

"This is the most difficult time I have ever experienced" after 11 years of running the company, Zhu said. The worst part might be the uncertainty: She has no idea when the authorities might lift the ban or whether she can make it that long. "All of this is unknown to us," Zhu said.

She is not alone: Wu Hai, owner of Mei KTV, a chain of 100 Karaoke bars across China, took to the nation’s premier outlet of discontent, social media platform WeChat, to voice his despair. KTV’s bars have been closed by the government because of the virus, choking off its cash flow. The special loans from the authorities will be of little help and no bank will provide a loan without enough collateral and cash flow, he said on his official WeChat account earlier this month. On WeChat , Wu gave himself two months before he has to shutter his business.

* * *

It's not just Japan's flagship financial publication and owner of the Financial Times, the Nikkei, that is dramatically changing the narrative away from "all shall be well." In its headline article today, Bloomberg writes that "Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast" and described the plight of Brigita, a director at one of China’s largest car dealers, who is also running out of options. Her firm’s 100 outlets have been closed for about a month because of the coronavirus, cash reserves are dwindling and banks are reluctant to extend deadlines on billions of yuan in debt coming due over the next few months. There are also other creditors to think about.

“If we can’t pay back the bonds, it will be very, very bad,” said Brigita, whose company has 10,000 employees and sells mid- to high-end car brands such as BMWs. She asked that only her first name be used and that her firm not be identified because she isn’t authorized to speak to the press. With much of China’s economy still idled as authorities try to contain an epidemic that has infected more than 75,000 people, millions of companies across the country are in a race against the clock to stay afloat.

The irony, of course, is that all this is happening even as China has in fact eased dramatically in recent weeks, from cutting rates, to engaging in a barrage of mini stimulus measures, to injecting massive amounts of liquidity, to cutting taxes, to supporting virus-stricken companies...

Yet while China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good.
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"If China fails to contain the virus in the first quarter, I expect a vast number of small businesses would go under," said Lv Changshun, an analyst at Beijing Zhonghe Yingtai Management Consultant company.

Said otherwise, unless China reboots its economy, it faces an economic shock the likes of which it has never seen before. Yet it can't reboot the economy unless it truly stops the viral pandemic, something it will never be able to do if it lies to the population that the pandemic is almost over in hopes of forcing people to get back to work. Hence the most diabolic Catch 22 for China's social and economic system, because whereas until now China could easily lie its way out of any problem, in this case lying will only make the underlying (viral pandemic) problem worse as sick people return to work, only to infect even more co-workers, forcing even more businesses to be quarantined.

Some, like Bloomberg, blame the banks.

As a group, Chinese banks had offered about 254 billion yuan in loans related to the containment effort as of Feb. 9, according to the banking industry association, with foreign lenders such as Citigroup Inc. also lowering rates. To put that into perspective, China’s small businesses typically face interest payments on about 36.9 trillion yuan of loans every quarter.

In an emailed response to questions from Bloomberg News, ICBC said it has allocated 5.4 billion yuan ($770 million) to help companies fight the virus. “We approve qualified small businesses’ loan applications as soon as they arrive,” the bank said

Alas, it is not that simple: as we explained two weeks ago in "China's Banks Face $6 Trillion Coronavirus Cataclysm If Epidemic Is Not Contained Soon", China's banks are rapidly retrenching well-aware that they face an explosion in bad debt as the bulk of Chinese companies face collapse. As such, it makes little sense for them to throw good money after bad, and instead most are hunkering down in anticipation of the coming shock.

Indeed, as even Bloomberg concedes, banks are hardly any better off themselves: "Many are under-capitalized and on the ropes after two years of record debt defaults. Rating firm S&P Global has estimated that a prolonged emergency could cause the banking system’s bad loan ratio to more than triple to about 6.3%, amounting to an increase of 5.6 trillion yuan."

The bottom line is that for both companies and their bank lenders (and sources of potential rescue financing), there is one commodity in very short supply: trust. Trust that the counterparty will do the right thing; trust that the government will treat everyone fairly instead of just bailing out a handful of connected politicians. Trust, which in China in general has been lacking for years, as the formerly communist country succumbed to crony hypercapitalism with Chinese characteristics, one in which knowing who to bribe and who to lie to meant the difference between success and failure. Trust was never cultivated. And now that lack of trust is about to cost China dearly.

In any case, the lack of far more funding means that China's smaller businesses whose revenue have suddenly collapsed, have just weeks if not days of liquidity left. Brigita, whose firm owes money to dozens of banks, said she has so far only reached an agreement with a handful to extend payment deadlines by two months. For now, the company is still paying salaries. But those will stop too.

And that's when the real crisis begins as hundreds of millions of workers suddenly find themselves unemployed.

For some the crisis has already begun. Wang Qiang, a 23-year-old migrant worker, has been unable to find work in Shenzhen after three weeks of searching. On top of the limited factory job openings, the Nikkei notes that he faces another major obstacle: his identification labels him a native of Hubei.

His home province, where the virus originated, accounts for the vast majority of the 74,000-plus mainland infections and most of the deaths. "The labor dispatch companies told me that the factories don't want people from Hubei," he said. The fact that he did not go home for the Lunar New Year holidays seems to make no difference.

Wang spends his nights sleeping on the floor of an uncompleted building. "I'll wait and see if the situation gets better when companies restart work on Feb. 24."

In a few short hours Wang will be greatly disappointed. He won't be the last one, however, and if China's doesn't find some miraculous solution to the current coronavirus crisis, in two months China will face a financial, economic and social cataclysm the likes of which it has never seen in its modern history.

www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-will-be-really-really-bad-china-faces-financial-armageddon-85-businesses-set-run-out
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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 14:03 #377

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What will happen if China go's bankrupt and floods the market with US bonds

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Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 14:17 #378

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annabelle wrote:
They are not blogging.

What little information there is is from their son who spoke with them by phone.

They cannot leave the 'prison hospital' until they pass three tests saying they are negative for the coronavirus. If that happens then they can leave the hospital, then they would have to make their own way back.

It does appear the Princess cruise line is paying to put up ex-passengers of the Diamond Princess who tested positive for the virus and then 'recovered' from it in hospital into hotel rooms in Japan (according to recovered ex British passenger Alan Steele).

What is particularly concerning is that David and Sally are not getting any medical treatment, according to their son, not for the coronavirus or for their pneumonia, and the medical facilities they are now in does not sound good.

And how is David Abel particularly, suppose to leave the hospital to somehow make his way back to Britain (or even a Japanese hotel), even if he does pass the three tests, when he has acute pneumonia?

Acute pneumonia for someone in their seventies can be life threatening, why isn't he being treated for it.

It has been my understanding that the only travel arrangements by the British authorities were for the British passengers still on board the ship who tested negative for the coronavirus. The evacuation plane has already landed with 30 Brits and 2 Irish aboard.

Those who were removed from the ship, who tested positive, are being expected to get their own way back (after they test negative three times), on a regular flight.

Have no idea about their insurance.


This David Abel?
www.starnow.co.uk/davidabel3
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User(s) who Liked this post: Roastie

Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 14:26 #379

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This David Abel?
www.uk-celebrant.co.uk/
liberabo te ab inferno

875 020 079

Keep an eye on the media and their shills, know their duplicity.
Nothing stirs, only the intense humming of evil remains.
Only registered members can reply. Create an Account to join the discussion.

Coronavirus 25 Feb 2020 14:29 #380

  • Lux Interior
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This David Abel?
liberabo te ab inferno

875 020 079

Keep an eye on the media and their shills, know their duplicity.
Nothing stirs, only the intense humming of evil remains.
Only registered members can reply. Create an Account to join the discussion.

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