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TOPIC: Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters

Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 14:09 #1

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www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK?utm_source=feedburner&utm_...+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29

100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters

LONG-RANGE weather forecasters have warned that Britain should prepare for heavy and persistent snow for up to THREE MONTHS with winter 2013 set to be the worst in more than 60 years.

The latest detailed forecasts for winter 2013 ALL point towards months of relentless extreme cold with heavy snow 'extremely likely' across the country.

Arctic air will roar in from the North Pole later this week, triggering the start of the worst winter in many people's lifetimes.

Experts in long-range weather forecasting said the WHOLE of Britain should be prepared for this winter to be the most severe since 1947, which saw the UK hit by relentless snow and some of the lowest temperatures on record.

February 1947 was the coldest in history with heavy snow the following month leading to seven-metre high drifts.

Flooding was also a problem as rain ran off frozen ground in torrents leading to widespread chaos on the roads.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 14:15 #2

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This is interesting, it was just few years back when Denmark got nearly two meters of snow.. I wonder how's it going to be here up north if England is going to get a hammering.

I actually wish we would get a decent winter, there has been way too warm winters during last ten years. Lot of snow is better than constant rain at least. :) But when temperatures drop below -30 degrees, that's pain in the butt.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 14:53 #3

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Anything below minus 10 degrees c is unusual in British winters.

Looks like it will be happening soon though....and its especially unusual for this time of year....normally the worst we get in early december is an overnight frost now & again.

I'm going to put a bet on at the bookies for a white christmas....can't remember the last time that happened.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 15:00 #4

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I think you guys are lucky to get yourselves a decent winter, only problem is that most european countries are not prepared for it. Stuff that's everyday routine and normal arrangements for winters in here are unheard off in say, Germany, France or England.

I just hope you will NOT have below -20 degrees weathers, that's where it might get painful if you're not used to it.

But if you guys get lot of snow, you must go skiing and build snowcastles and stuff. It's so much fun. :D Oh if you would just have saunas there, HOT sauna + swim in the snow, there's nothing better. ;)
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 15:07 #5

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Being not prepared for it is an understatement Hex.

A couple of inches of snow in England and the country grinds to a halt, seriously. Its a joke.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 15:18 #6

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Yea, I've heard that one before... Its amazing, if we get -35 degrees and two meters of snow, no problem, smaller roads will just be shut for few days and then its all normal again.

Houses here are also very well designed to keep the warmth in and cold out. Everybody has decent winter clothing and tools for removing nearly ANY amount of snow. I have never seen people having problem with it what so ever. Also nearly all cars have heater devices, so driving during winters is no problem either. Oh did I mention wintertyres.

Of course using same kind of measures to live through winters would be over the top for most of Europe, but some kind of arrangements to keep stuff functioning during cold weathers should exist. At least houses should be designed to keep warm below -20 and people should have at least one set of decent winter clothing. I guess even these things lack in England?

Its so funny in a way, I can go camping during winter any time I want and I have all the necessary stuff right here at home. I've spent nights in tent in nearly -30, no problem. :) I'm willing to guess that your army would have some equipment for that? Although, they seem to prefer hot climates for some reason.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 15:37 #7

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My house here - which was built over 100 years ago - is cold in the winter and too hot in the summer. And that's with double glazing and insulation.

Houses in England tend not to be designed/built with extremes of temperature in mind.
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 23:21 #8

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Thought so. :/ Stone building perhaps?
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 29 Nov 2013 23:44 #9

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Might not need to panic quite yet.

I think papers like the Express like to stick this stuff on headlines so they can sell papers without having to find any news to report.
There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the Met Office is warning of exceptionally cold weather for three months.

However, the Met Office hasn't issued a warning along these lines and we have not highlighted months of 'exceptionally cold' weather ahead. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings.

The news stories are based on information taken from our three month outlook for contingency planners, so let's take a closer look at that.
What does our three month outlook say?

This outlook is not like our other forecasts because, as we have discussed previously, it's not currently scientifically possible to provide a detailed forecast over these long timescales.

Instead, the outlook assesses the level of risk connected to five different scenarios for both temperature and rain/snowfall. It's a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race.

The current outlook for December-January-February says the chance of the coldest scenario happening is between 20 and 25% and the chances that the period will fall into the warmest scenario is between 10 and 15%.

So while uncertainty is quite large, below average temperatures are more likely than above average (for note, average maximum temperatures for the UK in winter are about 6.6C and average minimum temps are about 0.9C).

However, as with any horse race, it's always possible that the favourite won't win - so these probability scenarios have to be used in the right context. This is why they're useful for contingency planners who plan ahead based on risk, but not that useful for the general public.
So what will winter be like?

Obviously there's always a lot of interest to know what winter will be like - how cold will it be, how much snow will we get and where and when will it fall?

The Met Office is working with research partners around the world to improve longer range forecasting, but it's not currently possible to forecast snow or exact temperatures three months ahead.

However, our 30-day outlook (under the text forecast tab) provides a look ahead to the general type of weather we're likely to see in the UK.

Currently it says that after today, we'll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into the first of December before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of next week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather.

For the mid to latter part December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely.

With regards to forecasting snow, because there are so many factors involved, generally that can only be discussed in any detail in our five day forecasts.

If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/get-ready-for-winter/blog?blogid=8779
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 08 Mar 2014 21:27 #10

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Global warming is the last of my worries...sigh
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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 08 Mar 2014 21:52 #11

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I keep coming across all these posts by DG that I agreed with and didn't say Thank You for..... so I'm putting in all the Thank Yous now. :)
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if he undaunted be....". (Beowulf).

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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 08 Mar 2014 22:11 #12

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Hexhammer wrote:
Thought so. :/ Stone building perhaps?
Hiya Hex. I didn't notice this post of yours until now. :) It sounds like you know something about stone buildings - do you? Here in the U.K. everything is brick or stone, yet that's not the case in Finland (Iceland, Sweden, Norway, et al) is it? Is wood the way to go in extreme weather?

:)
"...Wyrde saves oft the man undoomed
if he undaunted be....". (Beowulf).

"The most beautiful people we have known are those who have known defeat, known suffering, known struggle, known loss, and have found their way out of the depths... Beautiful people do not just happen". (Elisabeth Kubler-Ross).


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Britain facing worst winter in over sixty years warn forecasters 08 Mar 2014 22:32 #13

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No mention of excessive/freak rainfall and flooding.....funny eh. These weather folks are so good at their jobs.... :roll: :hahano:
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